Possible Playoffs cases going into week 7 of the LEC.
By - LegFinger
I feel like it'll probably be the current top 5 + VIT because I have absolutely no hope in AST *(a.k.a MagiFelix&Friends.Co)* keeping up consistently and I don't see any of the remaining 3 do a miracle run like S04 did before, Gillius we miss you :(
Astralis actually has an easier schedule than VIT so they might make it anyway
For AST it's MAD, S04, XL, SK and VIT
For VIT it's MSF, XL, RGE, S04 and AST
It might actually come down to their match at the end of superweek
Then I hope it comes down to that, being tied for a long time and then having to battle it out for last spot in playoffs sounds like a good storyline, not as good as a good miracle run, but that should do.
Also aside from Rogue I think the rest are doable, MSF started strong but they're definitely within VIT's reach currently
The thing is that there are not better stories than miracle runs, since it's a classic underdog story full of breaking odds.
But a one on one battle for a last spot in play offs is as good as we could get. I really hope for them to remain tied up to the last day cause that would hype as fuck.
I feel like whoever the 6th seed is gonna get absolutely gigaslapped in playoffs though lol
Or because what is league anymore, could 3-0 upset one of the top teams somehow
Would be interesting to see how strong is strength of schedule for the rest of the season for each team. Not sure how it\`s calculated for different sports, but maybe give value 10-1 to each team (10 being 1st team-1 being 10th team) and have those summed, to get additional information.
Well I tried it and here are those results:
1. MAD and SK are first with 38( both have to play FNC, RGE, MSF, G2 and AST)
5. RGE(FNC,MAD,VIT,XL,SK) and VIT(MSF,XL,RGE,S04,AST)-26
So AST getting 6th seems more likely. Also G2 has a good chance to come into playoffs with confidence boost.
That's a good point. I had this idea as well, I might try and calculate an ELO for each team and run a monte carlo simulation to determine a most probable outcome, given the schedule. I might give it a shot tomorrow.
Actually a very interesting summary to look at thanks for taking the time for this.
No problem. Will be interesting to check how it matches with reality.
Follow-up after today:
3. MSF(G2,SK,FNC,MAD) and XL(VIT,AST,RGE,G2)-24
5. G2(MSF,S04,MAD,XL) and VIT(XL,RGE,S04,AST)-20
Follow-up after today:
2. MAD(FNC,G2,MSF) and XL(AST,RGE,G2)-21
5. VIT(RGE,S04,AST) and S04(G2,VIT,FNC)-16
7. RGE(VIT,XL,SK) and AST(XL,SK,VIT)-7
I find it really baffling that Schalke decided to put Kirei in instead of Gilius. I might be biased but I have never once seen Kirei on a team that's done well in all my years of seeing him show up, meanwhile Gilius was a pretty big voice in the last Schalke roster.
Seemed like an obvious downgrade and it's proving to be just that.
Gilius did not want to play this split, it was not Schalkes decision
Gillius always seem to improve bad rosters and always get cut somehow
Do any of you guys believe in another Schalke miracle run to playoffs?
The fact it’s even less likely now makes me wanna believe in it now (though I wouldn’t want any of the bottom 5 teams to make worlds)…
I believe in the miracle run as long as GodGilius is still part of Shalke
Don’t give me hope for another Schalke miracle run.
I remember the LEC broadcast saying they had a 4% chance of making playoffs at one point last summer and these odds aren’t much worse lol.
Without Gilius, no.
If this team wasn't much worse than the other team i'd agree
But having odo on the team and by that point a damn good and consistent midlaner in abedagge helped out a lot. Especially odo, i don't think brokenblade is 1: as good a player and 2: as much of a calming voice
Having a jungler also helped
Would be funny if MSF don't make it in that 0.0006% chance
Sorry that's an Excel specific trick.
Funny for who man wtf
its a .06% chance but yeah thatd be sad
G2 not making worlds unless entire team goes bald. Need a transformation to ascend.
Better pray for the playoff buff or it is possible they ain't going