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mpetro1980

Ford will likely miss multiple production milestones. Scared to invest at this level. Buy the rumor, sell the news


EyeAteGlue

Can you elaborate on the milestones and why you believe they would miss them?


DrChixxxen

I think I can answer. Their price is partly up because of news of many orders of their EVs, as we saw last year they’re very vulnerable to semiconductor issues, which will likely continue into this year, making production goals hard to meet. I feel like they got on early as far as major manufacturers of EVs are and added a dividend, so seems great to sell calls on to get good entry.


EyeAteGlue

Didn't the semiconductor industry ask the auto industry to redesign their circuits to stop using so many legacy chips that they continue to design into the high run rate vehicles? Auto industry kept using the same design even in new vehicle refreshes. These chips are ones unused by other industries except autos and hence do not always get the assembly line time the autos want it to. One advantage to the switch in EVs are brand new designs (instead of recycling as much on old platforms), and thus more mainstream, current, chips being designed in. Maybe I'm thinking about this wrong but I don't think it's the same challenge as the past two years if the "missed deadlines" thesis is going to be based on chip availability.


DrChixxxen

Interesting and I have no idea


mpetro1980

Ford did not communicate a timeline for doubling f150 production. On top of the supply chain drama, I am very skeptical on the battery production/lithium manufacturing. Once a schedule comes out stating doubling production for 2025…. Might be time to buy puts


ezpark

So puts?


SaltyTyer

With the FED most likely raising rates multiple times this year and next year, I wouldn't bet to deep into Autos. Having worked in Automotive Finance for 25 years, I can promise you that a 2% difference in rate is a mighty big payment difference, when financing 50 grand..


Ackilles

Good, I just need rates to be raised and ford to come back down to 19 by Feb 18th or I lose my shares. Not too much to ask, right? ;)


SaltyTyer

Not really... Hey it's the Feb 18th thing that might be a problem!


stinkyfinqer

What would you invest in?


SaltyTyer

Energy... Big Energy... XOM.. ET... CVX..COP..VLO..MRO


SaltyTyer

Good Yield and Low PE..


WarrenBuffettsBuffet

F is a gigantic bubble of epic proportions


Stoneteer

why?


WarrenBuffettsBuffet

Tons of debt, and rates are likely going up Loss of sales year over year over year Sales will continue to decline as ICE cars are replaced with EV They're don't make a profit on their EV sales Every EV sale results in a loss on the sale as well as a loss on cannibalizing their ICE sales They won't be positive free cash flow in their EV segment for a couple years


pedrots1987

Ford is a finance company that sells cars on the side. Most of their debt comes from Ford Financial (it's a pseudo bank) and it's highly profitable.


gregariousnatch

Put LEAPS on $F, yes.


BooBooBull

I second this.


confused-caveman

Stock almost doubled in the last 6 months... Not a pro here but it sounds like chasing.


SimonSaysHooray

I got some 2023 $10 leaps a while ago and they doubled in value pretty quick. The problem is that the CC premium is shit, and you have to write them close to the current price to make a significant enough profit on them for it to be worth it. I had them breached twice already and had to close for a loss once.


kreh11

I'm have a $25c for 1/21 and looking at setting up wome put credit spreads too if it comes back down a bit. If you bought the leap, would you sell weekly calls on it or what timeframe you looking at?


Mysterious_Bid4511

Yes I would be selling weekly calls with it…probably cheap ones tho but by all means slow and steady I’m more wondering if it has now found support in the twenties or could it dip below 20 again :/ but 2024 is a long way I guess I can hold till then premiums should cover the whole cost basis by then


awak6n

I don't think you can sell weeklys with the breakeven you're getting, you're going to need to sell 29 strike and up to not lock in a loss if you're exercised


Mysterious_Bid4511

Well I can sell monthly then or just manage my short carefully and roll if it’s challenged I mean I would have to roll it to keep my long


kreh11

Looking at the weeklies for thr 21st and the premiums aren't good. .13 for a 27c. I feel like the IV is too low for you to get any substantial amount out of premiums. It would take you a year at that rate to even make your $870 back.


LurksForTendies

My experience with F is that premium really evaporates once you're a strike or two away from the money making it hard to realize the time value of the LEAP. I've been doing a skip month call calendars for tidy returns for a while now.


I-suck-at-golf

F was stuck at $8-9 for years. It deserves to be higher, but it’s a $15 stock all day.


Vast_Cricket

Experienced option investors here. My experience with F last few years is I lose more than gain. My latest was out may be 9 months from March 21 with Jan 21, 22 expiry. During the last months they were green just a couple times. Then it tanked to red again. By Xmas time I feared I will lose again so I closed it to avoid another loss. The stock took off left me with only +$15/contract. Can not answer PMCC strategy. The premium is too low to consider that strategy.


Maddturtle

I got the leaps after a dip so was able to get a lower strike for less. It's been paying me around 13% a month in premiums lately. So far working out will it continue? I can't say for sure. I have 4 different stocks I do this with and a 5th starting next month to try to diversify it a bit. Each is a different industry and I think Ill be doing msft next since I avoided tech for so long but could do PayPal since it's taken a beating and the upcoming Amazon integration should bring attention back.


bone_shadows

I had ford for years at 12 dollars avg price and was called stupid last year in april, for owning it buying more when it went down etc (I think it was this sub but it could have been wsb). Then felt stupid when it got called away at 25, since i Do think it has more room to run, although not by much. Its all EV hype, and we have all seen with tesla that can pump and be irrational as possible. So as much as I want to be bearish, it might actually take off from here. I would sell puts in the teens/20 and try to buy the leaps with that , dont go all in or anything retarded, but year 1 or two leaps bought on a down day should be good


Mariox

I would rather place a bet Ford goes down over the next 2 years from where it is at today. Ford have not been able to ramp Mach-E at all in 2021. That isn't a good sign that Ford can ramp F150 Lightning.


XnFM

I'd wait until after earnings. The current run up doesn't seem completely sensible, I"m of the mind that it will likely be back down to $20 or so within a month of earnings. I'm selling my 2023 LEAPS before earnings with the thought that I'll likely be able to buy back in for 2024 at a profit after earnings.